Fishing Forecasts

Wow what a difference a year makes! Last year at this time we were talking about how great it was because of the warmer than usual temperatures. This year we’ve just about had to bust out the snow shoes… Global warming huh? Well as much as I don’t like cold weather I love what it does to our redfish. The colder it gets the tighter the reds will be schooled up, usually eagerly awaiting to chew on whatever you toss at them. Even though the cold water seems to fire up the reds there’s a few things you can do that will increase your hookup ratio. A small paddle-tail or soft plastic shrimp like those offered from Fishbite’s are just the right size this time of year. Reds will be looking for tiny shrimp, fiddler crabs, and smaller minnows so try to “match the hatch” as they say. The water should be at it’s clearest this time of year so If you’re fishing shallow go light and use an 1/8 ounce predator style jighead from Slayer Inc.. One reason I prefer to use the Slayer Inc. line of jigheads is because you can get the lighter weight jigs with a strong 4/0 hook. A larger gap hook is key for a solid hookset on a big redfish. Sometimes even an unweighted soft plastic will work best this time of year as the fish will sometimes be a little spooky due to the clear water. At low tide try jigging the deepest creek holes with the above mentioned baits (with a 1/4 or 3/8oz jighead). The fish will stack in these holes, especially during the winter time negative low tides. A negative low tide is a great time to go out and do some scouting as well. You’ll find oyster bars and troughs that you never knew were there. Remember where those oyster bars and darker mud bottom areas are. That way when you go back at a higher tide stage you know where to make a cast to. Redfish will be looking for areas like that to warm up on cold winter days and the warmer they are the more likely they’ll be to feed on whatever you’re tossing at them.

January was a good month for black drum and sheepshead and it should continue to be good through February. A piece of fresh dead shrimp on a smaller circle hook or jighead is the go-to bait for the drum. The pinfish have sometimes been relentless this past month, stealing the shrimp before it even reaches the bottom. A few other baits that get a drums attention and seem to last a little longer on the bottom are clams, oyster crabs, or Fishbites Fish’n strips. The low end of the tide seems to be best and the deeper the creek hole the better. Fiddler crabs will also get a drums attention but are really candy for sheepshead. Some lunker sized sheepies will come from the Bridge of Lions and the St. Augustine and Matanzas inlets this month. Try fishing the slack tides as it will make it easier to feel the toothy critters slurp up your bait.

As long as it doesn’t get too cold the trout should still be lurking along the ICW edges, creek mouths, and just about anywhere with moving water. If you find one there will likely be more in the same spot. Small jigs and the good ‘ol live shrimp under a popping cork should make for some steady action… just remember trout season is closed this month so it’s catch and release only until March. I was lucky enough to be on the water just about everyday this past month and didn’t see many frozen snook floating around… after what seemed like one of the best summers (2009) in recent history for snook in our region lets hope they made a mad dash for warmer water.

The early bird doesn’t always get the worm… January is one of my favorite months to fish and being able to sleep in a little longer than usual (especially when it’s cold) can be nice. There’s no need to get on the water super early this month as the fish will be chewing better after the sun gets up and the flats start to warm up a bit. A mid-day low tide this time of year is a Northeast Florida angler’s dream come true. Redfish will be schooled up and low tide is the easiest time to find them. This is the time of year that I always hear people saying “I wish my boat would float shallower or, I wish I could push-pole my boat”. This is because you can take a shallow water skiff deep into the creeks and flats on the low tide stages and have your way with large schools of feeding redfish. Look for flats with dark colored bottoms and creeks with an abundance of oyster bars. One of my favorite areas this time of year is the flats on the west side of the ICW in St. Augustine from the 312 bridge to just south of Devils Elbow Fish Camp. Redfish love those areas because they warm up faster than others and tend to hold more bait for them to snack on. Typically the water is pretty clear right now so you’ll be able to see the fish but you can also locate them by looking for “muds” or small fleeing baitfish and shrimp. Don’t worry if you don’t own a super shallow water skiff, these fish are still accessible. Most larger creeks in the area have small “flats” on their banks on extreme winter low tides. Slowly use the trolling motor to work as far back as possible in the creeks while eyeing the banks for cruising reds.

An inexpensive way to improve your sight-fishing prose is to buy a step ladder and bring it out on the boat. Paired with a good pair of polarized sunglasses this will give you a huge advantage. Some redfish tour anglers are actually using 10 foot ladders with great success (just make sure you have some decent balance if you try this one). My favorite baits this month are small soft plastics like a Fishbites Xtreme paddle tail or a live shrimp both paired with an 1/8 ounce Slayer Inc. jighead. The reason I prefer the 1/8 ounce or even a 1/16 ounce jig is they make less splash when casted and with the clear water we have right now our reds can get a little spooky. This is also a great time of year to bust out the long (fly) rod. Many a redfish and even a few sheepshead will fall to small shrimp and crab flies. Being able to see the fish before you cast makes fly fishing that much more exciting and rewarding.

Black drum should be a good bet this month in the deeper creek and ICW holes. Fresh dead shrimp or sometimes even better, a fiddler crab fished on the bottom will do the trick. Speaking of fiddler crabs, the sheepshead bite should continue to be good through the next few months. Target area bridges and pilings with fiddlers, oyster crabs, or small shrimp. If you’re feeling a little more sporty look for sheepies on the flats feeding on oyster bars. It seems like sometimes every oyster bar you pass by this time of year will have a few munching away just waiting to be caught. Have a safe and happy New Year!

With water temperatures on the fall this month look for sight-fishing opportunities to rise… For me the next few months are the most exciting time of year to target reds on the flats. As the water drops into the low 60’s our water, especially the south part of our region, will really start to clear up. Fish will be hanging in the cleaner waters of our flats and creeks looking to warm up on sunny winter days. Look for darker mud and oyster-laden bottom to be holding redfish, trout, and flounder. These areas will warm up faster than others on sunny days…. a few degrees can really make a difference. Take the time to scout out these “hot spots” on a good low tide.

Another benefit of dropping water temps is the redfish will start schooling on the flats. Locate these fish from a distance by looking for “muds” (discolored muddy water) and/or pushing wakes made by moving fish. After getting close enough to see them in the water always try to cast to lead fish, he’s usually the biggest. Redfish singles and doubles can also be found sunning themselves in the shallows this time of year. These fish will be lazy so make sure to present you bait in a slow methodical manner. When I spot a stationary fish I like to cast long of him and at least a few feet to either the left or right of the fish depending on which way he’s facing. Then work the bait slowly back to where the fish is (this will help to not spook the fish). Once you think the fish might be in striking range of your bait you’ll have to choose to either leave the bait sit (this will work well while using live bait or a scented soft plastic like a Fishbite’s Xtreme shrimp) or to give it a very slight twitch. Some days they like it moving and some days they like it sitting still.

Smaller reds as well as trout and flounder will be schooled up in area creek holes. A live shrimp or mud minnow tossed into the depths can’t be beat. If throwing artificials is your thing try to downsize your baits in these colder months. A Fishbite’s shrimp or paddle tail paired with a Slayer Inc. jighead will be deadly! White and chartreuse are always favorite winter colors. Sheepshead fishing should start to pick up considerably this month. Target area bridges, docks, and pilings with fiddler crabs to catch the tasty porgies. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good bite!

For most people, November means turkey and stuffing but for us fishermen it’s officially “doormat” month. Traditionally November is a great time to target and catch big flounder. A live finger mullet or a big mud minnow rigged on a Slayer Inc. Destroyer jighead or the good ‘ol fish-finder rig is your best bet. Flounder will be holding in deep cuts in the creeks at lower tide stages. It’s not uncommon to find them “stacked up” in these holes so if you get one make sure to try a few more casts in the same spot. At higher tides fish on top of oyster bars and along the grass lines. Another popular spot to target the flat fish is at the inlets. They will hold close to the jetties… you’ll know you’re fishing the right spot after you’ve lost a rig or three to the rocks. Trout catches should also increase this month. When fishing early for trout throw a top-water “walk the dog” type plug. One of my favorites, especially when the wind is fairly calm is a High Roller plug. It’s wooden and doesn’t have rattles in it so it doesn’t make any noise other than the hooks hitting the side of the bait. Some of my biggest trout have come on that bait. One thing to remember when a fish strikes your top-water plug is to try to resist the urge to set the hook right away, but rather wait to feel the weight of the fish. If the fish misses on the first try he’ll usually come back for a second chance. If you set the hook right away your plug is likely to be flying through the air like a tiny fish missile aimed at the boat and the fish might have a hard time finding it again. Your best bet when targeting trout is to look for moving water at creek mouths, around oyster bars, and along the ICW banks. Sea walls, jetties, and rip-rap are also good trout haunts. The good ‘ole live shrimp under a float is always a sure thing for trout but if you prefer to throw a soft plastic the Fishbites paddle tails have been slayin’ em lately. Redfish will continue to shadow finger mullet schools this month. When you find a good concentration of mullet you can be sure the reds will not be far behind. Low tide creek fishing for reds should be hot this month as well as the banks of the ICW. Many people overlook these banks but when the tide is low and the mullet and small shrimp are schooled up Mr. Rojo will be on the prowl! Happy Thanksgiving…

Well, I keep thinking that that fall has arrived only to have the temps heat up again. The air temps may be warmer than usual but the water temps have dropped a good bit from their bathtub like temps of a few weeks ago. The cooler water temps have the fish happy for the most part and that has me happy for the most part as well.

Snook:

I don’t know if snook are still on the beach or not because I haven’t checked there for them but they are everywhere else for sure. They are spread out on the flats and there are concentrations of them near the mouths of creeks and rivers. They’ve been eating pretty well on the last part of the incoming tide. We’ve been using greenbacks under corks near the mangroves for them.

Redfish:

Redfish seem to be a little more confused by this weather than the snook do. One day you’ll get into them real good and the very next day they vanish. This should be the time of year where they begin to group up in large schools again but the constant change in the weather, from hot to cold and cold to hot, seems to have them unsure of what time of year it is. With that said, we’re still getting some nice fish on low water near some area sand bars but we’re not getting into the numbers of them that we should be. I look for that to change if things will cool off for a spell.

Trout:

The cooler water temps have brought back some huge trout. There are still tons of smaller trout but on my boat we had several trout over 22″ this week with one being 27″. Look for these big specks to start showing up in great numbers once the water temps stabilize in the 68-72 degree range. They’ll be even thicker if the water temps drop below that. The bigger fish are coming from 4′ of water or less right now and all the 14″-16″ fish are coming in 6′-8′ feet of water over open grass flats.

Best of the rest:

Mackerel are still putting on a show on the near shore artificial reefs and area passes. There has also been a push of cobia showing up near the artificial reefs as well. Mangrove snapper are still biting strong on any structure you can find from 5′-25′ of water.

You’ll have to stay on your toes to find bait. All these weather changes affect them to a great degree.  You’re just going to have to do some running around to find it from time to time. But when you do find it, you should be able to load up on nice sized baits. So if you’re only finding the small stuff, move. There’s plenty of good sized sardines out there right now, you just might have to do some work to get them.

Forecast:

Next week we should have some higher water in the mornings in the Tarpons Springs/Clearwater/New Port Richey areas and it looks liek we’ll have more stable temperatures. This should prove to be a more consistent and productive week for redfish for sure. The trout bite may not improve too much as the big girls may not show up in great numbers if it stays warm but you should be able to pick through the small ones to get your limit this week. Focus your efforts for snook near creek and river mouths near the top of the tide.

The weather man says that fall weather is coming tomorrow. He said the same thing two weeks ago. I want to believe him this time but it’s hard to do considering the excessive heat we’ve had to deal with this past week. However, this time it looks like his prediction is for real. So, I’m excited. Luckily, although the typical fall fishing hasn’t arrived yet, typical summer fishing has been great. Spanish mackerel, bluefish, bonita, sharks, trout and a few nice snook have been willing participants every day. I just can’t wait for cooler weather so that the redfish will begin schooling up in great numbers again.

This past week we had catch numbers in the 50+ range of mackerel, trout and even some awesome upper slot snook. Even though the water temps haven’t dropped yet from the summer heat, the snook’s internal clocks are telling them to start heading for the creeks. And that’s exactly where we’ve found them. Trout on are the grass flats in 4-8 feet of water and though they are typically smaller while water temps are still warm, we’re getting plenty of keepers for dinner. The mackerel have been veracious and all have been keeper size near the area passes.

This weekend’s cooler weather, should the weather man be right, could be just what the doctor ordered to kick off another great fall redfish bite. Every Fall, with the cooler weather, redfish group up in hordes. It is tremendous fun finding groups of fish in the hundreds that are turned on by the higher oxygen levels that cooler water temps bring. Prowling the grass flats, they seek and destroy any editable nugget they can find and when they run into us, we wreck ‘em. The Tarpon Springs and New Port Richey areas really come alive in the fall with redfish. Areas with shallow turtle grass flats with patchy bottom, oyster bars and submerged limestone rubble mixed in are places where these newly schooling fish will gather. The crystal clear water that the cooler water temps bring help us find the fish as we can often see them rolling on their sides, flashing their signature copper sides, from a distance. We’ll approach the fish slowly and quietly so not to disturb them and present them with scaled sardines which they have a hard time refusing.

High temps in the upper 70’s are predicted for next week! It should be a blast. Bring a light jacket for the morning run out and then enjoy Florida at it’s best in shorts and t-shirts by 10am. Nothing beats Fall fishing in the Tampa Bay area.